New Poll: Diehl Tied with Drazan Among Oregon Republicans Who've Already Voted
With Election Day on Tuesday, May 19th, the latest Predict Oregon survey shows a statistical dead heat, and a clear path to victory for the Diehl campaign.
A new Predict Oregon poll released yesterday confirms what the Diehl campaign has been seeing on the ground. This is a wide-open, two-person race for the Republican nomination for Governor, and Ed Diehl is in position to win it.
In a scientific poll of 656 likely Republican primary voters (margin of error ±3.83%), the results show:
Among voters who have already cast their ballots (nearly 300 locked-in votes), Diehl is in a statistical dead heat with Christine Drazan: Ed Diehl 39.0%, Christine Drazan 39.7%.
The overall race is extremely tight and well within the margin of error.
This is now a clear two-person race, with Dudley stuck in third around 17%.
"Drazan's slim lead exists only among ballots still sitting on kitchen tables. Among Republicans who have already made their decision, we're tied. The path to victory runs right through the voters who haven't sent their ballots in yet."
Read the poll results here.
What the Numbers Mean
Voters who have already turned in their ballots are the most engaged in this race. They've read their voter pamphlet, weighed the candidates, and made their call. And they're splitting evenly between Diehl and Drazan.
That's a real signal. The Diehl campaign has built momentum in the closing weeks, and that momentum is showing up where it counts most: with voters who are actually voting.
What This Race Is About
Oregon Republicans are fired up and ready for real change. After years of one-party rule, sky-high taxes, and failed leadership in Salem, voters are responding to Ed Diehl's platform:
Lower taxes
Affordability and cost-of-living relief
Property tax relief for seniors
Spending cuts and a smaller, more accountable state government
Real accountability in Salem
What Happens Next
Election Day is Tuesday, May 19th. Ballots must be postmarked by May 19th or dropped in an official Oregon ballot box by 8:00 p.m. that evening.
If your ballot is still on your kitchen table, now is the time. Every ballot returned over the next few days will help decide this primary, and decide who carries the Republican banner against Tina Kotek in November.
Take action today:
Vote. Drop boxes are open across Oregon. Find yours here.
Share this update with friends and family who haven't voted yet.
Join the campaign at EdDiehl.com.
This primary is winnable. With a strong finish, Ed Diehl will be the Republican nominee for Governor of Oregon.
